The Cover Story in May’s Marine Digest & Cargo Business News was written by Eric Watkins, and as usual, he gives us a lot to think about. He titles his piece, “Highways can’t bear it”, and he gets right to the point when he states that, “In California, as well as nationwide, the supply chain faces a shortage of trucks”. It’s the same point we’ve been trying to emphasize in the recent past, but Eric says it better.

“Although maritime executives are predicting smooth sailing this year for the Los Angeles-Long Beach port complex, the long-term prospects for the landside links continue to worry analysts.

“‘Heading into the buildup toward the peak season, all ports are operating without congestion,’ said Paul Bingham, an economist with consultants Global Insight. ‘The outlook is for continued good performance despite challenges from continued growth in trade.’

“But Bingham also warned, that ‘We still have concerns with the condition of the rail system and challenges for the trucking industry later this year.’ Those comments, pertaining to the US as a whole, apply in particular to the Southern California ports.

“In its Goods Movement Action Plan, the state of California is well aware of the problems. ‘It is becoming increasingly clear that even if seaports had all of the capacity they wanted, the landside infrastructure in California and the rest of the nation is simply not adequate to keep up with rising container and freight volumes.’

“In particular, it notes that ‘there is a national shortage of truck drivers, which is particularly affecting Southern California drayage operations, due to port congestion and delays, high insurance and fuel costs, and low rates.’

“According to the report, the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach depend on this local highway network. These two ports combined currently generate more than 40,000 truck trips per day. By 2010, this volume could exceed 50,000 truck trips per day and reach 92,000 by 2020.”

Eric’s got it right. Southern California is up against it right now, and over the next 15 years the volume of traffic will more than double. By putting the PierPASS finger in the dike, port officials are able to point to some immediate relief … enough relief to quiet some of the more vocal of its critics anyway … but not enough to silence those with foresight.

“While PierPASS has certainly won kudos for its effect in reducing traffic congestion,” Eric writes, “there are concerns that it alone will not be enough to offset the increasing problems from congestion facing California over the next 20 years or so as the volumes of cargo into the main ports continues to climb.”

[Eric is one of the few who see the handwriting on the wall as more than just “challenges”.]