Black Friday

Today is Black Friday. It’s the day after Thanksgiving and Americans are preparing for the long holiday weekend by spending all their time, and what little money they have, chasing down Christmas shopping bargains. It’s becoming a tradition. But something else is happening around the world today … a happening that could also become a tradition, except for the fact that there isn’t too much time left for the trend to take hold.

While most of the U.S. is preparing for the long holiday weekend by dumping their dollars in shopping sprees, most of the rest of the world is dumping U.S. dollars – as fast as possible. As a result, today, Black Friday, the U.S. dollar is sinking fast against the Japanese yen, the Singapore dollar, the Korean won, the Indian rupee and against every other currency on the planet.

It just breached the $ 1.50 level against the euro, just plunged to parity with the Swiss franc, and is likely to reach the same level against the Canadian dollar. What’s most alarming, however, is that the trading pattern we’re seeing in the dollar today closely mirrors what we saw three years ago when, during the Thanksgiving weekend of 2006, the dollar collapsed on the day before the holiday. It fell a bit further in global holiday trading, and then collapsed again on the Friday after the holiday. That was the Black Friday of 2006 that marked a new stage in a damaging dollar “bear market”.

That was three years ago when conditions weren’t nearly as bad as they are now. It was like getting a kick in the teeth, and the follow up assaults since then have had far-reaching implications.

Forget about “green shoots” and the “jobless recovery” nonsense we’ve been hearing from the elite. It’s not happening and it’s not about to happen because those far-reaching implications are just adding to the turmoil.

In line with its ongoing efforts to conceal the country’s economic failings, the media is promoting the Black Friday theme to American sheeple – and there’s no better way to describe fat-dumb-and-happy Americans. Since Mr. Bernanke inadvertently revealed in 2006 that we were already in a “recession”, at least 20,000 people every day have been added to the ranks of the unemployed. Our economic tailspin as a result became unavoidable and even the media couldn’t conceal it..

What the media is concealing, however, is the adverse effects our lack of buying power – Black Friday not withstanding – is having on the rest of the world. For example:

• “BEIJING – China faces a protectionist backlash because its manufacturers are saddled with overcapacity … a situation that has grown more serious as a result of the global meltdown … and the problem is actually getting worse in many industries.”

• “International Transportation Journal – CMA CGM, the world’s third-largest container shipping line, is searching for a partner or partners due to its problematic financial situation … The family-owned carrier currently has debts amounting to $ 5.6 billion.”

• “Financial Times – Dubai World, the conglomerate owned by the government of the Gulf emirate, on Wednesday asked creditors for a six-month ‘standstill’ on its obligations ,… The conglomerate also includes the high-profile DP World, the owner of the former P&O ports operator.”

• “Financial Times – In a corner of APM Terminals container terminal in the Port of Rotterdam, the presence of lifeboats, large parts for industrial pumps and other odd-shaped cargo awaiting loading embody the problems engulfing the sector. The outsized items – too big to fit in a normal shipping container – would never have found space on the packed container ships of two years ago, but unprofitable container lines and underworked ports are now grateful for the extra revenue. Rotterdam is one of the hundreds of terminals globally struggling to cope with the worst year in the sector’s 53-year history.”

• “Financial Times – Ports face crisis as volumes fall – The world’s container ports industry is facing a sharp reversal in its fortunes as the sector’s first ever year-on-year fall in volumes forces an abrupt change from breakneck expansion to retrenchment. The four biggest operators – Hong Kong’s Hutchison Ports, Singapore’s PSA, Denmark’s APM Terminals and Dubai’s DP World – have cut costs, including laying off staff, and delayed or cancelled new construction projects. According to one CEO, ‘Not only are we in the middle of a volume crisis but our customers, the container carriers, are in an even more difficult situation because of the over-capacity in that particular sector’.”

• “SchedNet Shipping News – The total capacity of the world container fleet has grown to 13 million TEU, comprising 4,722 ships, according to AXS-Alphaliner data. It has taken 13.5 months to reach this total up from 12 million TEU earlier, ‘as sustained scrapping and slippage/delays in deliveries have considerably slowed growth,’ said the Paris-based Alphaliner consultancy … Idling is increasing for the larger sizes, with 61 ships over 5,000 TEU currently idle … Ships of 4,000 to 7,000 TEU should continue to join the idle pool in the coming weeks.”

In spite of the fact that officials in the last two administrations, the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve all insist that troubles in Wall Street and the banking system are responsible for the global “recession”, anyone with half a brain – and an open mind – should readily see that non-job creating stock markets have nothing to do with the economy. The production of consumer goods is what sustains an economy, not the manipulation of stock markets. In a little while – and the sooner the better – it will be admitted that stock markets are legally-sanctioned Ponzi schemes. As for the invested dollar – now-you-see-it, now-you-don’t. Rarely does a gain materialize for the little guy.

Consumer goods don’t materialize, either, until a buyer makes a demand, so the buyer is really the starting point in the chain. Next, the manufacturer fills the order and arranges to transport the finished products to the buyer. It comes down to supply-and-demand, not stock market speculation.

If there are no buyers (because of U.S. unemployment), then Beijing has a big problem. And if Beijing is producing nothing, then those massive leviathans are mothballed. [Is it sinking in yet?]