On December 22nd, 2004, we suggested that you: “Consider just some of the moves that have already been brought to our attention by maritime reporters.

• CMA CGM is increasing the size of several of the nine ships now on order, from 8,200 TEU to 9,163 TEU.
• NY/NJ Port Authority has embarked upon a $ 1 billion expansion program.
• NY/NJ Port Authority and army engineers have begun a $ 2.25 billion dredging project.
• 75% of the nation’s purchasing and supply executives surveyed in the 68th Semiannual Economic Forecast of the Institute for Management and Supply expect strengthened economic growth in the U.S. in 2005.
• Maher Terminals announced an agreement with the Prince Rupert Port Authority in British Columbia to create a new intermodal container terminal on Canada’s West Coast, to be called the Prince Rupert Container Terminal.
• A second port, Fraser Port, on the Fraser River close by Vancouver, is also being developed as a container port.
• Hutchison Whampoa has committed millions to the development of at least three container terminals on Mexico’s West Coast, in the ports of Ensenada, Manzanillo, and Lazaro Cardenas.
• The Port of Rotterdam, with government approval and partial financing has announced development of a multi-billion dollar 8.5 million TEU container terminal, with a scheduled opening date of 2010.
• Also in Holland, PSA International announced the development in Antwerp of a new $ 580 million 3.75 TEU container terminal.
• Le Havre is progressing on expanding its annual container terminal capacity by another 3 million TEU by the year 2006.
• A 15% increase in Europe-Asia volume in 2005 has been projected by the Far Eastern Freight Conference, and charterers are already booking for the year 2007.
• China, the dominant factor in the Asia-Pacific region, is exporting goods to Europe at an even faster rate than to the U.S.

“Contrary to occasional pessimistic forecasts, none of the above steps indicate a weakening of resolve in the maritime industry. What is indicated is a growth of unmanageable proportions.”

A year later, in Vol. V, Art. 34, we noted that: “A maritime official was quoted as saying, ‘If all aircraft were grounded, the man on the street would hardly notice the difference. But if the world’s merchant shipping was laid up the effects would be catastrophic.’ Most of us in the U.S. acknowledge that observation without giving it a second thought, but others around the world are very much aware of that truism.”

Well, that truism is getting a lot of second thoughts nowadays. Here’s a look at some of what the Journal of Commerce had to say last week – just five years later.

The heading on the story is: “California’s New Congestion Problem”, and the story begins:

“When cargo volume in the Los Angeles–Long Beach port complex was booming two years ago, terminal operators opened gates early, worked through the lunch hour and offered five night and weekend gates each week. Harbor truckers loved it.

“Drivers at Southern Counties Express were averaging three or four turns a day, said Brian Griley, president of the drayage operator …

“Today, with cargo volume down almost 20 percent, the terminals are working 8 a.m to 5 p.m. They shut down for the lunch hour …

“As a result, harbor truckers are suffering. Many drivers are down to two turns a day. For drivers who are paid by the trip, that is not enough to earn a decent living. Motor carriers say drivers are leaving the industry …

“Terminals today are moving containers with fewer man-hours as they struggle to survive the economic downturn …

“Long truck lines have returned to the docks in Los Angeles-Long Beach, frustrating the truckers. Drivers sit idle at the gates when terminals shut down for an hour at lunch. Truckers line up two to three hours early before the PierPass gates open.

“The PierPass program, in which all container terminal operators in Los Angeles-Long Beach agreed to offer four night gates and one Saturday gate each week, was a success when it was initiated five years ago. Earlier this year, however, volume dropped so low the terminals eliminated one gate each week …

“The Waterfront Coalition, which represents cargo interests, has received more complaints on this issue than any other, Executive Director Robin Lanier said …

“Conditions are no better inside the terminal gates. Truckers say their waiting time is unbearable because operators are assigning less equipment and fewer longshoremen to yard work. Some terminals are using top-handlers rather than large, efficient transtainers to place containers on chassis, because manning requirements in the waterfront contract call for one longshoreman per top-handler but three longshoremen per transtainer. Terminal operators say top-handlers work fine today because traffic is down and container stacks are low.”

So – just five years later – instead of growth “of unmanageable proportions” the industry is seeing the first stages of a depression “of unmanageable proportions”. Yet our nation’s leaders are sitting on their hands and doing nothing to avert the catastrophe. The reason is simple. Either they don’t know what to do, or they don’t care to do anything. But because they’re aware of the impending disaster, they’re stashing away as much in the way of “emergency provisions” as they possibly can.

[Y’know – bailout money through Wall Street, Big Pharma, Big Insurers, Climate Change, etc., etc.]