Probably Doubtful

According to “analysts” in the U.S. news media, the recession has ended. “More than 22 states have ‘growing economies’ … Job gains will be seen pretty consistently from here on out … While there is no official method of determining when a state comes out of a recession,” those analysts admit, “economists, using different measures, say the recession has ‘probably’ ended.”

The term “probably” covers just about everything – especially their backsides. This speculating and fantasizing – this spinnage – on the part of analysts and consultants has become an annoyance. Those professional know-nothings have been in denial ever since the world’s economy started to go south. Although it never happened – they’ve insisted – it has “‘probably’ ended” by now.

Hardly. Here’s a sampling of the truth which you won’t see mentioned in the local media:

“Business Times – 24 Mar 2010 –
“Update: Japan exports fall casts doubt on trade recovery”

– “TOKYO – Japan’s exports fell in February from the previous month in a sign that a rebound in external demand could start to slow as the impact of subsidiaries and stimulus measures wane … Economists said that growth was likely because firms overseas are increasing inventories … They also warned that shipment of these goods could slow after buildup.”

“The Journal of Commerce – 3/24/2010 –
“Rickmers Maritime May Fail Financially”

– “Auditor doubts ability to meet more than $ 1 billion in commitments, liabilities … The Singapore-based charter containership owner’s share price plunged over 25 percent March 23 on word of the announcement.”

“SHIPPING NEWS – 3/24/2010 –
“Order book shrinkage cuts Hyundai Heavy demand for China steel”

– “For the first time in five years, Hyundai Heavy Industries, the world’s largest shipbuilder, indicated that it may cut back on the number of steel plates it buys from China.

“The Journal of Commerce – 3/24/2010 –
“Flatbed Trucker C. Bean Transport Shut Down”

– “C. Bean Transport, a flatbed and truckload carrier, closed its trucking operations last week and filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection … More trucking bankruptcies are expected as lenders get tougher on carriers that can’t make loan payments …”

[That’s just a sampling of the truth. It hurts. And the pain is about to get a lot worse.]