Recessive Memories (A reprint of Vol. XX, Art. 14 … Four years ago today)

This past December, U.S. authorities told us that the “recession” began in the month of December 2007. And we believed them. But it was the usual spinnage.

On June 26th, 2006, we composed our Vol. VII, Art. 37 commentary, “Empty Promises”. Therein, we referenced a story in the LA Times which supported our contention that large container ships were a waste of time and money, and would lead to difficulties in the coming downturn. We were sure of our assessment because leading maritime authorities for years had been saying the same thing, and we were anxious to eliminate those difficulties with our patented containership design.

But we found something else in that back issue which proves that the information being fed to Americans by U.S. authorities is, more often than not, spinnage – which is a polite way of saying, prevarication. Here’s how our commentary began:

“Ronald White, an LA Times Staff Writer, has a habit of telling it like it is. Mr. White was quoting Mr. Charlie Woo, the owner of Megatoys. Mr. Woo had determined that shipping rates were dropping because the anticipated growth in trade failed to keep pace with the construction of ever-larger ships. ‘If their ships are full and their business expands, they want to raise the rates,’ Mr. Woo said. ‘I think their ships are not completely full, and the competition to fill them is fierce.’

“‘The deluge hasn’t hit yet, but we will see more and more vacant space on these ships,’ said Mark Page, director of research for Drewry Shipping Consultants of London … ‘For some time now, we have been receiving far too much in the way of ships and in very large ships in particular. Now we are looking at three years to 3½ years of overcapacity’…

“By some measurements, the Times article stated, the blistering growth has already begun to lag. In both 2003 and 2004, dubbed ‘the super cycle’ by Drewry, the worldwide trade grew by 14%. The growth rate slowed to 11.5% in 2005 and is expected to drop to less than 10% in 2006 and about 9% in 2007, Mark Page said.

“Several factors are weighing on the industry, according to the Times. Chief among them is the growing evidence of economic cooling in the U.S. and other countries …Signs of inflation, particularly red-hot energy costs, led Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke on Monday to pronounce the price trends ‘unwelcome’ and the U.S. economy ‘in a period of recession’.”

Mr. Bernanke is one of those who insist that the “recession” had its beginnings in December of 2007, yet on or about June 23rd, 2006 – fully eighteen months before the official pronouncement on December 2007 – he clearly stated that the U.S. economy was already “in a period of recession”.

Accuracy may not be one of Mr. Bernanke’s strong suits, but because he’s reputed to be an expert on the Great Depression years, shouldn’t he be familiar with FDR’s Emergency Shipbuilding Programs? Forget Wall Street, Mr. Bernanke. Create jobs by revitalizing U.S. shipbuilding.