Red Alert

“… and as nation’s struggle to gain production and trade advantages over rival economies, trade wars, or worse, are likely to develop. No one wants that but it’s an inevitable scenario unless we find a way out of this mess.”

That’s what we wrote in yesterday’s commentary, and the fears of unrest are already showing up in China. This is how the lead story began in today’s issue (1-07-2009)of Business Times:

“China risks wave of unrest as unemployment rises: report”

“(BEIJING) China risks a wave of protests and riots in 2009 as rising unemployment stokes discontent among migrant workers and university graduates, a state-run magazine has said in one of the bluntest alarms yet of rising unrest.

“The warning was published in this week’s Outlook Magazine (Liaowang), issued by the official Xinhua news agency, which laid out the hazards facing China and its ruling Communist Party as growth slows amid global financial turmoil.

“‘Without doubt, now we’re entering a peak period for mass incidents,’ a Xinhua reporter, Huang Huo, told the magazine, using the official euphemism for riots, protests and demonstrations.

“‘In 2009, Chinese society may face even more conflicts and clashes that will test even more the governing abilities of all levels of the Party and government.’

“‘Rising tension over jobs and income comes as China enters a year of politically sensitive anniversaries, especially the 20th anniversary of the 1989 armed crackdown on pro-democracy protests. The biggest risks to China’s stability will come from a surge of graduating university students, facing a shrinking job market and diminished incomes, and from a tide of migrant labourers who have lost their jobs as export-driven factories have closed …

“‘If in 2009, there is a large number of unemployed rural migrant labourers who cannot find work for half a year or longer, milling around in cities with no income, the problem will be even more serious,’ he added.”

Maybe yesterday’s claim that building patented container ships “will prove to be the impetus for not only our economic recovery but also that of the entire world” wasn’t so “bold and brazen” after all.

That cooperative international effort we envisioned is becoming more attractive by the minute:
• Millions of U.S. workers building patented container ships, so that …
• Millions (billions?) of Chinese workers can produce goods … demanded by U.S. consumers with new-found buying power … to be shipped aboard those U.S.-built vessels, so that …
• U.S. buyers … the catalysts in the world’s economy … can satisfy their shopping appetites.