Surveying the Damage
From The Journal of Commerce Online – February 16, 2012:
“Global Economy on the Mend, Says Survey”
“A quarterly global survey says the world’s economic climate has begun to improve after two quarters of decline but remains significantly below its long term average.
“The latest World Economic Survey, published Thursday by the International Chamber of Commerce and the Munich-based Institute for Economic Research, polled 1,120 economic experts from business and academic institutions in 120 countries to assess current and expected economic developments …
“‘The latest results confirm that the cyclical downswing of the world economy is still underway,’ said Gernot Nerb, Info director of economic research. ‘But they also confirm the now-prevailing view that the downswing will be relatively short and moderate in most countries and not devolve into a recession.’
“The survey noted a deteriorating economic climate in Western Europe while the continent’s six-month outlook has brightened but remains uncertain. Nerb said the prevailing view is that a eurozone collapse and return to national currencies can be avoided.
“‘This view, coupled with the brightening economic outlook in some other parts of the world, particularly in the U.S., allows us to reasonably hope that the Western European economy will start picking up in the second half of 2012.’ he said.
“However, the economic climate in Asia points to a slowdown, ICC Secretary General Jean-Guy Carrier said.
“‘In the U.S. economy, the six-month outlook is certainly more positive than it was three months ago,’ said Carrier.” –
1. “…cyclical downswing of the world economy …”
Cyclical? As though this kind of worldwide economic disaster happens every few years? The last time the world experienced this kind of a “downswing” was during the Great Depression. Those in power back then, however, not only knew that the economic tailspin was contrived, but they also knew how to pull out of that death spiral. Today’s manipulators can’t even find the rudder pedal. This whole economic mess can be cleared up by the creation of jobs. Jobs mean paychecks, full stomachs – and peace and tranquility
2. “… will be relatively short …”
How so? Every European country is feeling the pinch. Even Norway is hurting. The Norwegian reefer ship operator, Star Reefers, acknowledged a $ 124 million loss in 2011.
“The year 2011, together with 2010, represents one of the poorest periods in the reefer industry’s history, with continuing low rates, high costs and the full impact of aggressive competition from container lines,” the Oslo-listed carrier said.
3. “… and not devolve into a recession.”
Any “devolving” would be from this depression back into a “recession”, and would be a remarkable improvement. Ask the Greeks, the Italians, the Portugese and the Spanish folks how they feel about the austerity measures being imposed upon them. Ask them if all this is “cyclical”.
4. “… the continent’s six-month outlook has brightened …”
“Business Times – 20 Feb 2012 (London) The Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index, which tracks rates to ship dry commodities, fell for a third day on Friday as weak cargo business on the capesize and panamax markets battered sentiment …
“‘We note that activity continued to fade away with charterers likely sitting out as end-user demand remains dismal,’ RS Platou Markets said.
“The main index, which factors in the average daily earnings of capesize, panamax, supramax, and handysize dry bulk transport vessels is down 59 percent this year.
“Supply of ships is outpacing commodity demand and putting a lid on dry bulk freight rates, with economic uncertainty, a financial squeeze, and a slowdown in China adding to the headwinds …
“Average daily earnings for capesizes have dropped 81 percent this year.” –
Sounds cyclical, alright. Those 1,120 economic experts would have us believe that “economic uncertainty” is some kind of an indicator of a “brightening economic outlook”.
5. “… a eurozone collapse … can be avoided.”
They can’t be serious. Greece is burning – literally. More forthright analysts have stated that the only way out for the country is to drop out of the eurozone, refuse to pay the staggering debt to the manipulators and return to its national currency. Will here be ramifications? You can bet on it.
6. “… the brightening economic outlook … particularly in the U.S. …”
This was the biggest joke in the survey. Haven’t they heard about OWS? These grassroots protests have spread to hundreds of U.S. locations – and not because of a “brightening economic outlook”.